College Fantasy Info

2007 U-Sports All-Americans

With the close of the fantasy college football season upon us, U-Sports has compiled the best fantasy performances from 2007.

The 2007 All U-Sports Fantasy Team:

• QB: Tim Tebow, Florida
• RB: Kevin Smith, UCF
• RB: Matt Forte, Tulane
• WR: Mike Crabtree, Texas Tech
• WR: Jordy Nelson, Kansas State
• WR: James Hardy, Indiana
• K: Colt David, LSU
• Def/ST: Cincinnati

All U-Sports Second Team:

• QB: Graham Harrell, Texas Tech
• RB: Anthony Alridge, Houston
• RB:  Darren McFadden, Arkansas
• WR: Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
• WR: Casey Fitzgerald, N. Texas
• WR: Dante Love, Ball State
• K: Scott Webb, Kansas
• Def/ST: South Florida

The best individual fantasy score occurred in Week 11 when Tim Tebow, QB, Florida had 22 completions for 304 yards and 2 passing TDs and 26 carries for 120 yards and 5 rushing TDs on the road against South Carolina.

The top college teams for producing fantasy points were:

1. Hawaii
2. Texas Tech
3. Nebraska
4. Florida
5. Cincinnati
6. Kansas
7. Boise State
8. Ball State
9. Tulsa
10. Oregon

Boston College and Matt Ryan

I have really hated Boston College all season. Gave them zero chance to win at Virginia Tech. For the majority of Boston College's battle against the Hokies, I appeared to be right. Then Ryan led BC to two Heisman-quality scoring drives. If Matt Ryan wins the Heisman Trophy, and everyone seems ready to engrave the trophy now, those touchdown passes will be replayed over and over and over. Two questions that immediately pop into my head:

Is Boston College worthy of the #2 ranking?
In a season where everyone is falling and top-ranked upsets are happening weekly, kudos have to be given to Boston College for winning this game. Even when they were playing awful football, they were still in the football game the entire way. Boston College is very similar to the top-ranked Buckeyes. In fact, there probably should be some debate on which should be #1. The ACC has been more impressive than the Big Ten.

Should Matt Ryan be the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy?
Those 2 drives were amazing. His passes were on the money. If he had played an average game and then finished with those, I would confidently say: Maybe. However, he didn't play average. He played awful. Even with those drives, he finished with under 50% completion percentage, 5.5 yards/attempt, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Those are very Sam Keller-like stats. I'll put him in my Heisman race because it's just asinine not too, but I still don't like him as the best player in college football.

But Matt Ryan is a star QB on an undefeated BCS football team!!?!? How about we compare his season to another QB that fits the same bill (and by no means is/should be in the Heisman discussion):

                                                                                                           

Player	Passing Yards	Comp %	Yards/Attempt	Passing Touchdowns	Interceptions	Passing Efficiency
Matt Ryan	2433	61.0	6.83	19	8	131.48
Todd Boeckman	1799	66.5	8.61	21	8	164.32

Now I would never say Matt Ryan is worse than Todd Boeckman because I think Ryan will become a pretty decent pro. However Todd Boeckman is playing just as well, if not better, than Matt Ryan this season with none of the fanfare.

Our Defense BlitzIndex

I have tweaked the first edition of our exclusive 2007 college football defense rankings, the Defense BlitzIndex a bit in order to give you the best tool for you to set your lineups each week.

It will probably be handy for you to download and print the spreadsheet, get a feel for the rankings and let them marinate in your mind. Now that you have done that, let me me reintroduce some of the basic concepts.

There are tons of stats out there for you to pour over, but I have focused on the fantasy ones...

• Rush yards allowed/game (RYPG)
• Pass yards allowed/ game (PYPG)
• Points allowed per game (PPG)
• Yards allowed per play (YPP) (new for 2007 formula)

Each of those stats are ranked from 1 to 119 for each team, then I add up the rankings and divide by four to create an equal-weighted index of all the defenses - I don't want any one category to shine above the others. Then I rank the resulting "BlitzIndex" low-to-high for the rankings.

No shock that just like last year, I have no idea why you would start anyone against LSU, except maybe the new man of Steel, Tim Tebow.

The "VAR" column stands for variance, and this score is (RANK RYPG - RANK PYPG) which might be the most useful score on the system, allowing you to see "under the hood" of the national rankings. Positive numbers mean better ranked pass defenses, negative numbers are in red - I highlight the numbers not between 60 and (60) in yellow since those are big statistical differences for a sample of 119, and ones you should pay special attention to.

Big VARs illustrate how flawed looking at just the run and pass in a vacuum can be - let us take #18 Oregon State and #19 Army which have variances in their ranking greater than 60. Oregon State stands as the second best rush defense in the nation but is 65th in passing - dontcha think that the running numbers are strong because no one bother to run since they are easily gashed through the air? Opposite is the case with Army or more interestingly #25 South Carolina where have great pass rankings only because their first three opponents ran all over them.

So if you have a strong RB and are playing the Beavers, I wouldn''t hesitate after looking at the defense in its totality. Use your noggin though - Florida, USC, and Georgia Tech still demand your respect despite the big variance in rankings, especially since most are still in the Top Twenty of PPG allowed.

Last year I was often asked why turnovers were not a part of the story, and my response is that I am not trying to help you pick up a defense each week to start, it is to help you set your lineups. Creating big plays and stopping them are worked in to the yards per play also, in my opinion. I have�noticed a high correlation with YPP to the blitz rankings, so if that continues I may just leave it out and focus on the original three. Or maybe just use the YPP, right?

This brings up a great point - why haven't I worked in strength of schedule? Reason is I can''t get any of the accepted computer ranking companies to license their data to me for a reasonable price, so it will require us all to use some inference. If you know someone who knows someone, let them know about this project.

Email me at vince@fantasycollegeblitz.com to discuss - and especially if you have any ideas on how to tweak the formula.

Fantasy Thoughts for '07

Before the season started I talked with some college fantasy gurus to get their takes on the upcoming fantasy college football season.  I’m posting the transcript now because, as it turns out, it can very busy around late August/early September when running the largest college fantasy site.  (A shameless plug wrapped in a lame excuse – is that a first?)

The gurus I interviewed were:

• Mike Beacom of Pro Fantasy Sports
• Ryan Browder of College Fantasy Bowl
• Steven Lassan of Pro Fantasy Sports
• James Lyons of CFFInsider.com
• Vince Mullins of Fantasy College Blitz

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What would you classify as the biggest difference between college and professional fantasy sports?

(Ryan) The turnover of players. In the pro football, the top fantasy performers are fairly consistent. The same names are at the top of the list every season. This is supported by the fact that the pre-season magazines will basically tell you the same news. In college, the absolute max a player will be a high performer is 4 years. If you get more than 2 years of production, you've struck gold. This creates a difficulty in evaluating talent at this level for fantasy sports. Experts will vary on who they feel are going to be the star performers in any given season. Personal preference becomes a large part of the game.

(James) There are many differences, but the one that stands out to me is the ability of players to have extreme blow-up weeks, sometimes half your scoring comes from one player.  The big RBs and QBs can put up 6 TD games.  You’ve got to have a couple of players capable of blowing up 2 or 3 weeks per year to compete in a college league. 

(Steven) I think one of the biggest differences, if not the biggest is the large amount of players and the injury reports/information available each week. Usually the injury reports in college fantasy football are very vague, as opposed to pro where more is said and reported by the coach. Having 119 teams to choose from in a Division One league is a ton of players to sort through – compared to 32 teams with a smaller roster size. However, that's one of the advantages of college fantasy football – being able to find a great sleeper within the mass of players.

(Mike) College is for the more serious player. It takes a great amount of skill and a competitive owner really has to do his/her homework. But I can honestly say have more fun playing college fantasy football.

(Vince) The sheer number of teams are the biggest factor just ahead of a) the constantly changing rosters from year to year due to graduation, and c) the information advantage available to a good college owner. I can speak best about football - 66 teams in the Big Six conferences, and this year a total of 120 teams in all of FBS. Almost 2x and 4x the NFL makes the level of knowledge and commitment much higher for the college owner.

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What player didn't pan out as you expected in '06?

(James) Sydney Rice at South Carolina.  I thought he would be a consistent weekly scorer last season.  By the time he had a breakout game, a lot of managers had benched him. 

(Steve) I think there were a couple of guys who were major disappointments. Tyrell Sutton of Northwestern didn't live up to expectations; the same could be said for Kenny Irons of Auburn. Although both backs were solid, they certainly didn't equal up to the fantasy expectations we set for them. Arizona State quarterback Rudy Carpenter turned out to be a real bust, as well as Bret Meyer of Iowa State.

(Mike) Kyle Wright . . . wait, every U player, for that matter

(Vince) The names I remember were due to off-field issues.  I think everyone missed on Rudy Carpenter QB Arizona State last year due to the HR turmoil. Tyrell Sutton RB Northwestern dealt with the death of his coach and a young inexperienced staff in his stead. Jarrett Hicks WR Texas Tech had academic issues that were not discussed openly until draft day for most leagues. That is why you have to look at more than talent, you have to define risk/opportunity as well.

(Ryan) Rudy Carpenter. Coming off a short season where he threw for 17 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, he was named starter and ready to put up great numbers. Injuries and the pressure of the Keller/Carpenter saga got to him and he had a very average fantasy season. That being said, Dennis Erickson takes over at Arizona State now and Carpenter is a good sleeper for 2007.

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Who are some of the players you would draft in the mid-late rounds based on the potential of a huge year?

(Steve) I think there are several players who I would watch in the middle rounds – it's the spot that often makes or breaks your draft. One player who I really like is Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall had a good year as the backup running back, but with the starting spot all his, I think he's due for a breakout year. A guy like Miami, Ohio's Brandon Murphy is someone who will fall because of injuries, but is probably a 1000 yard back in 2007. Also, system quarterbacks are worth watching. Guys like Max Hall of BYU, Blake Joseph of Houston and the winner of the Baylor quarterback battle could have good fantasy value, particularly in select matchups. At receiver, I'd particularly watch any one of the Texas Tech guys that fall – you never know which one is going to emerge into a fantasy option.

(Mike) I think Curtis Painter will be much more efficient this year. He had great totals in ‘06 but threw too many picks. Expect that to change.

(Vince) We like to focus on QBs in the middle rounds, around the seventh to tenth time around. This year we like Justin Willis of SMU (who was ranked tenth in passing efficiency in 2006), Brian Johnson of Utah (back from knee injury) and Matt Flynn of LSU (starting experience with loads of supporting talent). At other positions are Dantrell Savage RB Oklahoma State, Austin Scott RB Penn State, Maurice Purify WR Nebraska and Andre Caldwell WR Florida.

(James) I think you have to look at freshman RB Noel Devine at WVU.  He is potentially one injury away from seeing fulltime backfield duty.  In a keeper league, I like this for the future.  Probably more of a backup, but my personal pet project this year is senior RB Julius Crosslin at Oklahoma St.  He could be this year’s touchdown vulture and post some 10 yard, 2 TD lines.

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If you could be the college football commissioner for a day, what would you change about the regular season?

(Mike) I would change how schedules are prepared. Make it more systematic, like the NFL. No more cupcake non-conference schedules for BCS contenders.

(Steve) That's a tough one, I like most of the things in place. I would like to see more interesting non-conference matchups, so maybe have a scheduling plan in place like the NFL where the AFC North plays the NFC South one year, NFC East the next, etc. Perhaps have a college football ACC vs. the Big Ten…or the SEC vs. the Big 12. That would toughen the non-conference slate up and end the I-AA cupcake games.

(Vince) Not a thing. Maybe a gentle nudge to strengthen out-of-conference scheduling to repeat offenders, but overall the regular season for college football holds more special meaning than any other sport. 

College Football Mock Draft

This past Sunday a group of experts got together for a mock fantasy draft.  The draft was moderated by FantasyInsiderOnline and hosted by Mock Draft Central.

Draft Order:
1 – Dan Mesday of Fantasy Insider Online
2 – N/A
3 – Ryan Browder of College Fantasy Bowl
4 – Alex Esselink of CFFInsider
5 – Steve Lassan of Pro Fantasy Sports
6 – N/A
7 – Geoffrey Stein of Mock Draft Central
8 – Brian McDonald of RotoWorld
9 – Jonathan Lee of AccuScore
10 – Nathan Karp of U-Sports
11 – Jay Huffman of Virtual-Sports
12 – Vince Mullins of Fantasy College Blitz

I didn't get a great draft spot at #10, but was thrilled to see P.J. Hill still available.  I also reached on the defense on round 4, but I am prone to do that.  I feel VT, with their penchant for scoring on defense and special teams, is in a class by itself in terms of defensive squads.  If you don't get VT, the next 10 best choices are about the same.  I also hoped to start a run on defenses to keep more position players available for my next pick, but that trick didn't work with these guys.

We drafted 14 rounds from all of Division I-A (FBS).  Here are the results.

Red Raider WRs Part II

Cut to Chase...Who will it be in 2007?                
While Jarrett Hicks owners will disagree, 2006 was an abnormally consistent for Tech wide receivers. With Hicks (X) out for various reasons throughout the year, Joel Filani (Z) and Robert Johnson (Y) were the beneficiaries, combining for 180 catches, 2171 yards, and 24 TDs. However, there is one key component to consider here: the Tech offense saw very little turnover at the WR position from 2005 to   2006. Filani, Johnson, Amendola (H), and Hicks (if he would have been eligible) were all carry-over starters from 2005. Filani and Johnson put up solid numbers in 2005, so it is no surprise that they flourished with Hicks out.                

The 2007 campaign is shaping up as an entirely different story. Besides Amendola, we are going to see a new group of WRs attempt to carve out a place in the starting line-up. Amendola moves from one inside spot (H), to the other inside spot (Y). At first glance this looks like lateral move. However looking back through recent years, the Y spot has out-produced the H ever since the Wes Welker era. In recent years we've seen Johnson, Trey Haverty (also played some H in relief of Nehemiah Glover), and Mickey Peters all put up legit fantasy numbers from the Y spot. This is good news for Amedola, who is a technically sound receiver that will pile up the receptions. However, don't look for him to be the big play threat of the group. If you're looking for consistency, and your league tallies points for receptions, Amendola is a very good pick.

Eric Morris is the most likely to take over the H spot made available with Amendola's move. Morris saw plenty of action at the H with Amendola last year, but as we've pointed out, the H spot has not produced the numbers as the Y. Given this and the fact that Morris was behind Amendola on the depth chart last year, he should also be behind Amendola on our draft board this year.                

When we start to look at the outside positions things start to get interesting and this is where the feast or famine potential is especially intriguing. There are 4 receivers vying for 2 spots. L.A. Reed and Todd Walker filled in for Hicks last year and manned the X position again this spring. Walker is the burner of the two with Reed possessing the size. Neither has distiguished themselves from the other so look         for them to split time once again, which will eat into individual numbers.                

Joel Filani manned the Z position for the past 2 years and his numbers speak for themselves. A pair of youngsters are battling to take over his spot and become the next big play receiver on the outside: sophomore Edward Britton and redshirt freshman Michael Crabtree. Crabtree was the scout team hero last year and tore up spring practice again this year. At 6' 2" and 210lbs he is a big target.  He also         has plenty of athletic ability to make things happen after the catch. A deadly combo.  Despite all the attention Crabtree has received of late, Britton is still ahead of him on the depth chart and should not be ignored. Britton is a bit smaller, but has tremendous speed. This makes him a threat anytime he touches the ball and in a Tech offense that could be often. Britton could also see some time in kick-off and punt returns giving him a few more touches this year.  Crabtree and Britton are Tech's two big play weapons and in the end we believe both will be on the field. Because of this we are placing our head smack dab on the chopping block once again, with the advice to take Crabtree and/or Britton ahead of Reed, Walker, or Morris.                

In short if you are looking for consistency you'll want to grab Amendola. If you're a gambler and are looking to score big you want Crabtree or Britton. If they don't pan out you can always blame us. If all three are gone, then you need to spin the roulette wheel with Reed, Walker, or Morris.                

This is an especially difficult year for drafting Red Raider wide receivers, and we're not just saying this so that angry owners do not throw this piece back in our faces in early November. The options are vast, the head coach is certifiable, and the Texas Tech offense looks to exploit the weaknesses of opposing defensive units rather than create individual stars. Some owners are going to get rich, and some are going to spend their free time making Mike Leach voodoo dolls; either way, it's never dull in Red Raider land.

   

Red Raider WRs part I

Delving into the mind of Mike Leach is no easy task. It's how we imagine Clarice Starling must've felt when getting to know the lovely Hannibal Lector (of course Mike Leach doesn't reside in a mental institution, nor does he strike us as one who likes a nice Chianti). So when CFFinsider.com decided to attempt to solve the Texas Tech wide receiver riddle, looking for the edge in 2007, we knew we were taking on a daunting task. One need only look at the alphabet soup (H, X, Y, F, HB, BH, etc) of positional call-outs to know that we are behind the eight of understanding right from the get go. But, being pathetic college football junkies we've accepted the challenge in order to help you win your league in 2007.

The Leach Alphabet                    

The Leach offense mixes and matches formations at will. So to use the word traditional when describing a Tech alignment is a bit of a laugh. However the most 'traditional" of line-ups you'll recognize is 4 wide with a back in the backfield. In this set, the H and Y spots are the inside receivers, the X and Z spots are the outside and or course the F is reserved for the running back...what else. The other mix of letters are simply there for Leach's amusement, in order to bewilder some 18 year old quarterback who was tricked into believing that playing for the Tech mad scientist would be fun. So for now keep these four letters the back of your mind as you read through this article: H, Y, X, and Z                

Feast or Famine                    

We've warned fantasy owners in the past about the feast or famine of Tech wide outs. One week a Tech WR will have 150+ yards and 3 scores and next he's barely a blip in box score. Frustrated owners ask (in best Nancy Kerrigan voice) "WHHHHHHHYYYYYYYY?" The simple answer is this is nature of the Mike Leach offense: spread them out and exploit a weakness. One this weakness may make the Z the big man on campus, the next week it will be H who's getting the receptions on a Saturday, and the pats on the back later that night. If you can stomach the lulls in-between the highs, then Tech receivers are a great buy. This is especially the case if you partake in a total points rather than head-to-head. But if, like your 401K, you need to set the lineup and ride it. Unless you have plans of starring in the sequel to Being John Malkovich, where you'll play John Cusack and Malkovich is replaced by Leach; you can forget about it. Tech wide receivers are not for the faint of heart or those with a tendency toward ulcers or high blood pressure. Like Tech running backs and quarterbacks, if you are not willing to ride them, don't draft them.

Draft at Your Own Risk - QB

Below is our second piece (the quarterback piece) of a three-part series on players that I feel will likely be taken too high on draft day.  As mentioned in my RB piece, it's important to note that this is not a list of players I expect to be busts; it's just a list of guys that may go too high on draft day.

Note: All fantasy football ratings listed below come from a pool of quarterbacks from the 6 BCS conferences only (including Notre Dame) and were taken from a handful of internet college fantasy football sites.

Chad Henne, Michigan - rated as high as 12th by one service.  Henne reminds me of Troy Aikman - a good QB with little fantasy value.  Even if Henne's passing numbers increase by 20% this year, he still won't be worth much.  His rushing yards will net out to less than zero and he may not rush for a TD all year.  And as good of an offense that Michigan has, they will pull the foot off the accelerator when they start to build leads.  He is not a top 25 QB in a BCS only league.

John David Booty, USC - rated as high as 3rd by one service.  Front-runner for the Heisman?  I can buy that.  A top fantasy QB?  I'm not buying this.  Like Henne, Booty is going to get you nothing on the ground. His numbers at year end I'm sure will look very impressive on paper, but not if your paper is listing fantasy stats.  Guys like Bobby Reid and Matt Grothe won't finish in the top 10 in Heisman voting, but they will have better fantasy stats than Mr. Booty.  Look for Booty to finish top 20, but not top 10 in QB fantasy stats (again, for a BCS league).

Andre Woodson, Kentucky - rated as high as 4th by one service.  Except for the Heisman talk, everything I said for Booty goes for Andre Woodson.  Woodson may actually crack the top 10 in QB fantasy stats, but the lack of rushing stats means Woodson has little shot at finishing top 5.

Brandon Cox, Auburn - rated as high as 23rd by one service.  After what seems like 20 years of starting experience (in college alone), Cox may be the man that can lead Auburn to a surprise SEC West title in '07, but he's not going to help your fantasy team.  He will get you no rushing stats.  (Is this theme ringing home yet?).  When drafting QB's you intend to be your backup, you are better off taking risks on higher upside QBs.  I would certainly take Taylor Potts over Brandon Cox.

Bret Meyer, Iowa State - rated as high as 19th by one service.  Iowa State's offense may be the very worst in terms of BCS conferences.  If Meyer had a line and played for a good team, he'd be a very valuable fantasy QB.  But he has an atrocious O-line and plays for a very bad football team.  Phil Steele is projecting the Cyclones to score 14.4 points per game this year.  Even if they surpass that number by 50%, Meyer is still not going to be much of a fantasy asset.

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame - rated as high as 21st by one service.  Why is this guy showing up on fantasy lists?  When was the last time a true-frosh QB put up big passing numbers?  And Rhema McNight and Jeff Samardzija are no longer around.  Clausen supposedly had a better command of the offense in the spring than the other QB's vying for the starting job, so I expect Clausen to win the job.  But I also expect him to taking a beating as a true frosh and to throw more INT's than TD's this year.

Draft at Your Own Risk - RB

Below is our first piece (the running back piece) of a three-part series on players that I feel will likely be taken too high on draft day.  Are they overrated?  That may be a bit harsh, but based on the different rankings I have found on different internet sites, these guys appear to have too many question marks to be taken as high as many project. It's important to note that this is not a list of players I expect to be busts.  Again, it's just a list of guys that may go too high on draft day.

Note:  All fantasy football ratings listed below come from a pool of running backs from the 6 BCS conferences only (including Notre Dame) and were taken from a handful of internet college fantasy football sites. 

Justin Forsett, California - Rated as high as 7th (again, among BCS running backs) by one service.  Forsett goes 5'8", 186 lbs.  Can he take the pounding of being an every down back?  I'm not so sure.  Jeff Tedford has always preferred to give his #2 tailback plenty of work and with Forsett's frame, it would make sense to spell him often this year.   He's talented, with some nice upside, but if you pick Forsett after only 10 RB's have gone, you're taking a bit of a risk, with more proven commodities (at RB) still on the board.

James Davis, Clemson - Rated as high as 4th by one service.  As mentioned in the RB ratings on this site, Davis rushed for 226 yards and 1 TD over his last 5 games in 2006.  His counter-part, CJ Spiller, had 415 rushing yards and 3 TD's over the same 5-game span.  Davis may continue to get the ball more than Spiller in 2007, but will he approach the 1,187 yards and 17 TD's he had on 2006?  Doubt it. 

Austin Scott, Penn State - Rated as high as 18th by one service.  Scott, now a 5th year senior, should be mature enough now to handle the starting role, and Penn State should be one of the most improved teams in the NCAA in 2007.  But I find it hard to believe Scott will come anywhere close to Tony Hunt's numbers last year (1,645 total yards and 14 total TD's), especially when Scott's 2005 numbers looked like this: 273 rushing yards, 3 TD's, 4.1 yards per carry, and 3 catches for 27 yards.

Allen Patrick, Oklahoma - Rated as high as 11th by one service.  Redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray likely would have made a splash last year, had he not been slowed by turf toe.  Murray is listed as 3rd team on the opening Sooner depth chart, but that may be a mirage.   Murray, who had 103 yards on 4 carries in the spring game, will push Patrick and may overtake at some point during the year.  The Sooners other TB, Chris Brown, has a knack for the end zone, and he too will eat into Patrick's fantasy points.

Chauncey Washington & Joe McKnight, USC - Washington is rated as high as 14th by one service.  10 (count 'em) scholarship TB's on USC's opening depth chart.  Chauncey Washington is probably the safest choice, but look for USC to use multiple backs all season long.  Joe McKnight has not even arrived on campus yet and has to battle several other high school All-Americans, yet he is appearing on some of the fantasy running back lists.  There are 5 TB's bracketed as the #1 TB on USC's opening depth chart (McKnight, having not practiced yet, not being one of them), and 4 of those 5 were rated as top 12 RB's in their respective high school classes (per Phil Steele's ratings).

Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma State - Rated as high as 24th by one service.  Former TB Mike Hamilton has transferred, but sophomore Keith Toston has made big strides since last season and should see many carries this year.  QB Bobby Reid will probably rush for (somewhere in the ballpark of) 600 yards on the season.  Phil Steele is projecting the Cowboys to amass 212 yards per game on the ground this year.  With Toston and Reid eating up a good percentage of those 212 yards, Savage may only amount to about a third of that total.  If you do the math using these numbers, Savage may not eclipse 900 yards this year.  He will likely be a top 30 RB selection on fantasy draft day, and that is probably too high. 

Javarris James, Miami - Rated as high as 15th by one service.  True freshman Graig Cooper arrived early and showed signs of stardom in the spring.  Cooper should see a good amount of carries early on and could overtake Javarris James at some point.   TB/FB Charlie Jones will see carries as well.  Phil Steele projects the Miami ground game to average 148 yards per game, which isn't anything to write home about.  With three TB's likely to see a decent amount of carries for the 'Canes this fall, I'm not sure how wise it is to send anything but a late round pick on James.

Why Pat White is the #1 pick in your draft.

 

Graham Harrell is not the best QB in this draft...and it's not even close. Okay, that might be a little far-fetched but it's very possible that West Virginia's Pat White will produce numbers that could exceed the Texas Tech QB. To come to this conclusion, look no further than gradual improvement of Vince Young as a comparison.

VY's 2003 and 2004 look very similar to White's 2005 and 2006 production. Both QBs are dynamic runners who run for both yards and touchdowns.  Both QBs also appear to be adequate passers, at best. While his rushing numbers were pretty flat from season to season, it was Vince Young's improved passing skills that launched him into dominance. It will take this type of improvement in passing for Pat White to overtake Graham Harrell as the top fantasy QB this season. However, there are clues that White is on the right path, one being the 90% increase in fantasy points from 2005 to 2006 based on passing numbers alone.

Vince Young

Year	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns	INTs	Rushing Yards	Rushing Touchdowns	Total Fantasy Points	% Change
2003	1155	6	7	998	11	223.6	-
2004	1849	12	11	1079	14	295.4	+ 31.7%
2005	3036	26	10	1050	12	384.8	+ 30.3%

Pat White

Year	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns	INTs	Rushing Yards	Rushing Touchdowns	Total Fantasy Points	% Change
2005	828	8	5	952	7	190.6	-
2006	1655	13	7	1219	18	326.7	+ 71.4%

So what can we expect from Pat White in 2007?

For starters, we need to understand that if White's passing numbers increase his running numbers most likely will decrease. While White's rushing yards might be close to 1,200 yards, it will be quite difficult to duplicate 18 rushing touchdowns for a QB. For the sake of this analysis, we are going to assume a decrease in rushing touchdowns from 18 to 13.

How far will Pat White's passing progress in 2007? CFB ran three scenarios using the standard scoring system to gauge what type of output to expect from White. Under our Conservative scenario, White could marginally improve his passing and his rushing touchdowns could go down.  While this would be a decrease in fantasy numbers from last year, it still puts White as the #2 QB in your draft.

Under the Moderate scenario, we have White pushing his passing numbers from 1,655 yards with 13 touchdowns to 2,400 yards and 20 touchdowns. This would be significant progress in Pat White's maturation as a true QB and would put his numbers essentially neck-in-neck with Graham Harrell.   

What about a Vince Young ascension? Under the Vince Young scenario, White throws for 2,900 yards with 23 passing touchdowns. These types of numbers would make Pat White a no-brainer as the #1 pick. Is this possible? White plays in the Big East with a non-conference schedule tickled with the likes of Western Michigan, Marshall and East Carolina. It is very possible. Now all you have to do is pull the trigger with the 1st pick and take Pat White of West Virginia.   

  Projected 2007                                                                                                                                                               

Player	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns	INTs	Rushing Yards	Rushing Touchdowns	Total Fantasy Points
Graham Harrell	4876	43	16	-	1	361.8
Pat White (conservative)	1850	16	8	1200	13	317.5
Pat White (moderate)	2400	20	9	1200	13	356.0
Pat White (Vince Young)	2900	23	11	1200	13	388.0