I have tweaked the first edition of our exclusive 2007 college football defense rankings, the Defense BlitzIndex a bit in order to give you the best tool for you to set your lineups each week.
It will probably be handy for you to download and print the spreadsheet, get a feel for the rankings and let them marinate in your mind. Now that you have done that, let me me reintroduce some of the basic concepts.
There are tons of stats out there for you to pour over, but I have focused on the fantasy ones...
- Rush yards allowed/game (RYPG)
- Pass yards allowed/ game (PYPG)
- Points allowed per game (PPG)
- Yards allowed per play (YPP) (new for 2007 formula)
Each
of those stats are ranked from 1 to 119 for each team, then I add up the rankings and divide by four to create an equal-weighted index of all the defenses
- I don't want any one category to shine above the others. Then I rank
the resulting "BlitzIndex" low-to-high for the rankings.
No shock that just like last year, I have no idea why you would start anyone against LSU, except maybe the new man of Steel, Tim Tebow.
The "VAR" column stands for variance,
and this score is (RANK RYPG - RANK PYPG) which might be the most
useful score on the system, allowing you to see "under the hood" of the
national rankings. Positive numbers mean better ranked pass defenses,
negative numbers are in red - I highlight the numbers not between 60
and (60) in yellow since those are big statistical differences for a
sample of 119, and ones you should pay special attention to.
Big VARs illustrate how flawed looking at just the run and pass in a vacuum can be -
let us take #18 Oregon State and #19 Army which have variances in their
ranking greater than 60. Oregon State stands as the second best rush
defense in the nation but is 65th in passing - dontcha think that the
running numbers are strong because no one bother to run since they are
easily gashed through the air? Opposite is the case with Army or more
interestingly #25 South Carolina where have great pass rankings only
because their first three opponents ran all over them.
So if you have a strong RB and are playing the Beavers, I wouldn''t hesitate after looking at the defense in its totality. Use your noggin though - Florida, USC, and Georgia Tech still demand your respect despite the big variance in rankings, especially since most are still in the Top Twenty of PPG allowed.
Last year I was often asked why turnovers were not a part of the story, and my response is that I am not trying to help you pick up a defense each week to start,
it is to help you set your lineups. Creating big plays and stopping
them are worked in to the yards per play also, in my opinion. I
have�noticed a high correlation with YPP to the blitz rankings, so if
that continues I may just leave it out and focus on the original three. Or maybe just use the YPP, right?
This brings up a great point - why haven't I worked in strength of schedule?
Reason is I can''t get any of the accepted computer ranking companies
to license their data to me for a reasonable price, so it will require
us all to use some inference. If you know someone who knows someone,
let them know about this project.
Email me at vince@fantasycollegeblitz.com to discuss - and especially if you have any ideas on how to tweak the formula.
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