College Fantasy Info

Waiver Wire Suggestions

After week four action, here are some waiver wire suggestions for your lineup. While some of these suggestions may be for deep 119 leagues or leagues that only use SEC/ACC players - take a look at this list for your week 5 pickups. Additionally, I've included a few names who may be on the waiver wire in a few leagues - but this is probably your last chance to pick them up.

Tulsa WR Charles Clay
Virginia RB Cedric Peerman
Clemson K Mark Buchholz
Mississippi WR Mike Wallace
Ball State RB MiQuale Lewis
Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson
Arizona RB Nick Grigsby
Pittsburgh QB Pat Bostick
Kentucky WR Steve Johnson
Toledo WR Stephen Williams
Wyoming RB Devin Moore
Oklahoma State RB Kendall Hunter
Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant
Arizona State WR Mike Jones
Penn State RB Rodney Kinlaw
UCF QB Mike Greco
UCF WR Kamar Aiken
Wake Forest RB Josh Adams
South Carolina QB Chris Smelley
LSU TE Richard Dickson
Houston QB Case Keenum
Northern Illinois RB Justin Anderson
Baylor WR/TE Justin Akers

Our Defense BlitzIndex

I have tweaked the first edition of our exclusive 2007 college football defense rankings, the Defense BlitzIndex a bit in order to give you the best tool for you to set your lineups each week.

It will probably be handy for you to download and print the spreadsheet, get a feel for the rankings and let them marinate in your mind. Now that you have done that, let me me reintroduce some of the basic concepts.

There are tons of stats out there for you to pour over, but I have focused on the fantasy ones...

• Rush yards allowed/game (RYPG)
• Pass yards allowed/ game (PYPG)
• Points allowed per game (PPG)
• Yards allowed per play (YPP) (new for 2007 formula)

Each of those stats are ranked from 1 to 119 for each team, then I add up the rankings and divide by four to create an equal-weighted index of all the defenses - I don't want any one category to shine above the others. Then I rank the resulting "BlitzIndex" low-to-high for the rankings.

No shock that just like last year, I have no idea why you would start anyone against LSU, except maybe the new man of Steel, Tim Tebow.

The "VAR" column stands for variance, and this score is (RANK RYPG - RANK PYPG) which might be the most useful score on the system, allowing you to see "under the hood" of the national rankings. Positive numbers mean better ranked pass defenses, negative numbers are in red - I highlight the numbers not between 60 and (60) in yellow since those are big statistical differences for a sample of 119, and ones you should pay special attention to.

Big VARs illustrate how flawed looking at just the run and pass in a vacuum can be - let us take #18 Oregon State and #19 Army which have variances in their ranking greater than 60. Oregon State stands as the second best rush defense in the nation but is 65th in passing - dontcha think that the running numbers are strong because no one bother to run since they are easily gashed through the air? Opposite is the case with Army or more interestingly #25 South Carolina where have great pass rankings only because their first three opponents ran all over them.

So if you have a strong RB and are playing the Beavers, I wouldn''t hesitate after looking at the defense in its totality. Use your noggin though - Florida, USC, and Georgia Tech still demand your respect despite the big variance in rankings, especially since most are still in the Top Twenty of PPG allowed.

Last year I was often asked why turnovers were not a part of the story, and my response is that I am not trying to help you pick up a defense each week to start, it is to help you set your lineups. Creating big plays and stopping them are worked in to the yards per play also, in my opinion. I have�noticed a high correlation with YPP to the blitz rankings, so if that continues I may just leave it out and focus on the original three. Or maybe just use the YPP, right?

This brings up a great point - why haven't I worked in strength of schedule? Reason is I can''t get any of the accepted computer ranking companies to license their data to me for a reasonable price, so it will require us all to use some inference. If you know someone who knows someone, let them know about this project.

Email me at vince@fantasycollegeblitz.com to discuss - and especially if you have any ideas on how to tweak the formula.

Fantasy Thoughts for '07

Before the season started I talked with some college fantasy gurus to get their takes on the upcoming fantasy college football season.  I’m posting the transcript now because, as it turns out, it can very busy around late August/early September when running the largest college fantasy site.  (A shameless plug wrapped in a lame excuse – is that a first?)

The gurus I interviewed were:

• Mike Beacom of Pro Fantasy Sports
• Ryan Browder of College Fantasy Bowl
• Steven Lassan of Pro Fantasy Sports
• James Lyons of CFFInsider.com
• Vince Mullins of Fantasy College Blitz

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What would you classify as the biggest difference between college and professional fantasy sports?

(Ryan) The turnover of players. In the pro football, the top fantasy performers are fairly consistent. The same names are at the top of the list every season. This is supported by the fact that the pre-season magazines will basically tell you the same news. In college, the absolute max a player will be a high performer is 4 years. If you get more than 2 years of production, you've struck gold. This creates a difficulty in evaluating talent at this level for fantasy sports. Experts will vary on who they feel are going to be the star performers in any given season. Personal preference becomes a large part of the game.

(James) There are many differences, but the one that stands out to me is the ability of players to have extreme blow-up weeks, sometimes half your scoring comes from one player.  The big RBs and QBs can put up 6 TD games.  You’ve got to have a couple of players capable of blowing up 2 or 3 weeks per year to compete in a college league. 

(Steven) I think one of the biggest differences, if not the biggest is the large amount of players and the injury reports/information available each week. Usually the injury reports in college fantasy football are very vague, as opposed to pro where more is said and reported by the coach. Having 119 teams to choose from in a Division One league is a ton of players to sort through – compared to 32 teams with a smaller roster size. However, that's one of the advantages of college fantasy football – being able to find a great sleeper within the mass of players.

(Mike) College is for the more serious player. It takes a great amount of skill and a competitive owner really has to do his/her homework. But I can honestly say have more fun playing college fantasy football.

(Vince) The sheer number of teams are the biggest factor just ahead of a) the constantly changing rosters from year to year due to graduation, and c) the information advantage available to a good college owner. I can speak best about football - 66 teams in the Big Six conferences, and this year a total of 120 teams in all of FBS. Almost 2x and 4x the NFL makes the level of knowledge and commitment much higher for the college owner.

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What player didn't pan out as you expected in '06?

(James) Sydney Rice at South Carolina.  I thought he would be a consistent weekly scorer last season.  By the time he had a breakout game, a lot of managers had benched him. 

(Steve) I think there were a couple of guys who were major disappointments. Tyrell Sutton of Northwestern didn't live up to expectations; the same could be said for Kenny Irons of Auburn. Although both backs were solid, they certainly didn't equal up to the fantasy expectations we set for them. Arizona State quarterback Rudy Carpenter turned out to be a real bust, as well as Bret Meyer of Iowa State.

(Mike) Kyle Wright . . . wait, every U player, for that matter

(Vince) The names I remember were due to off-field issues.  I think everyone missed on Rudy Carpenter QB Arizona State last year due to the HR turmoil. Tyrell Sutton RB Northwestern dealt with the death of his coach and a young inexperienced staff in his stead. Jarrett Hicks WR Texas Tech had academic issues that were not discussed openly until draft day for most leagues. That is why you have to look at more than talent, you have to define risk/opportunity as well.

(Ryan) Rudy Carpenter. Coming off a short season where he threw for 17 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, he was named starter and ready to put up great numbers. Injuries and the pressure of the Keller/Carpenter saga got to him and he had a very average fantasy season. That being said, Dennis Erickson takes over at Arizona State now and Carpenter is a good sleeper for 2007.

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Who are some of the players you would draft in the mid-late rounds based on the potential of a huge year?

(Steve) I think there are several players who I would watch in the middle rounds – it's the spot that often makes or breaks your draft. One player who I really like is Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall had a good year as the backup running back, but with the starting spot all his, I think he's due for a breakout year. A guy like Miami, Ohio's Brandon Murphy is someone who will fall because of injuries, but is probably a 1000 yard back in 2007. Also, system quarterbacks are worth watching. Guys like Max Hall of BYU, Blake Joseph of Houston and the winner of the Baylor quarterback battle could have good fantasy value, particularly in select matchups. At receiver, I'd particularly watch any one of the Texas Tech guys that fall – you never know which one is going to emerge into a fantasy option.

(Mike) I think Curtis Painter will be much more efficient this year. He had great totals in ‘06 but threw too many picks. Expect that to change.

(Vince) We like to focus on QBs in the middle rounds, around the seventh to tenth time around. This year we like Justin Willis of SMU (who was ranked tenth in passing efficiency in 2006), Brian Johnson of Utah (back from knee injury) and Matt Flynn of LSU (starting experience with loads of supporting talent). At other positions are Dantrell Savage RB Oklahoma State, Austin Scott RB Penn State, Maurice Purify WR Nebraska and Andre Caldwell WR Florida.

(James) I think you have to look at freshman RB Noel Devine at WVU.  He is potentially one injury away from seeing fulltime backfield duty.  In a keeper league, I like this for the future.  Probably more of a backup, but my personal pet project this year is senior RB Julius Crosslin at Oklahoma St.  He could be this year’s touchdown vulture and post some 10 yard, 2 TD lines.

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If you could be the college football commissioner for a day, what would you change about the regular season?

(Mike) I would change how schedules are prepared. Make it more systematic, like the NFL. No more cupcake non-conference schedules for BCS contenders.

(Steve) That's a tough one, I like most of the things in place. I would like to see more interesting non-conference matchups, so maybe have a scheduling plan in place like the NFL where the AFC North plays the NFC South one year, NFC East the next, etc. Perhaps have a college football ACC vs. the Big Ten…or the SEC vs. the Big 12. That would toughen the non-conference slate up and end the I-AA cupcake games.

(Vince) Not a thing. Maybe a gentle nudge to strengthen out-of-conference scheduling to repeat offenders, but overall the regular season for college football holds more special meaning than any other sport. 

Post Week 3 Waiver Wire Suggestions

Here are some suggestions following week three action - some of the names are probably taken in your league, but each league is different and some of these guys may be floating around out there on the waiver wire. Additionally, some of these guys are more for long-term/keeper leagues.

Mississippi State RB Anthony Dixon
Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson
Auburn QB Kodi Burns
Pitt RB LeSean McCoy
North Carolina QB T.J. Yates
North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks
Virginia RB Cedric Peerman
Minnesota WR Eric Decker
Purdue RB Kory Sheets
Central Michigan WR Antonio Brown
Florida Atlantic QB Rusty Smith
Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor
Northern Illinois RB Justin Anderson
Penn State RB Rodney Kinlaw
Clemson WR Aaron Kelly
Miami, Ohio QB Daniel Raudabaugh
Miami, Ohio WR Chris Givens
Tennessee WR Josh Briscoe
Utah QB Tommy Grady
Ball State RB MiQuale Lewis
Northwestern WR Ross Lane
UAB RB Brandon Thornton

Waiver Wire Suggestions

This is just a short list of players you should consider for your waiver wire pickups this week. Some names are more known than others and some names are probably already taken in your league - but it just depends on your setup.

Marshall RB Darius Marshall

Marshall WR Darius Passmore

Florida State WR Preston Parker

West Virginia WR Darius Reynaud

Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy

Clemson QB Cullen Harper

Nevada QB Nick Graziano

Northwestern K Adam Villarreal

Miami, Ohio QB Daniel Raudabaugh

Miami, Ohio WR Chris Givens

Buffalo RB Mario Henry

Wyoming WR Greg Bolling

Washington QB Jake Locker

Boston College RB Andre Callender

East Carolina QB Patrick Pinkney

Idaho RB Deonte Jackson

Alabama RB Terry Grant

Northern Illinois RB Justin Anderson

Baylor QB Blake Szymanski

Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford

Virginia QB Peter Lalich

North Texas QB Daniel Meager

Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor

Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno

LSU RB Keiland Williams

North Texas WR Casey Fitzgerald

LSU WR Brandon LaFell

Some Thoughts From Week One

Week one of the 2007 college football season was certainly memorable and the Appalachian State upset was definitely one for the ages and we may never see something like that again for a while. As we all prepare for week two, here's a couple of notes/thoughts that I had from the week one slate -

I have yet to find the “spread” in Arizona’s offense. That performance against BYU was rather pathetic....

Somehow, someway, Utah State quarterback Leon Jackson III did not toss an interception against UNLV. Jackson had more interceptions returned for touchdowns than actual touchdown passes last year...

As I stated all offseason, watch the winner of the Bowling Green quarterback job – Tyler Sheehan won it and look what he did against Minnesota...

I hope UTEP-New Mexico can locate their offense this week, it was rather ridiculous watching those two hook up for a combined 16 points last week...

Tiquan Underwood – one week star or go-to guy?..

Utah is in real trouble if quarterback Brian Johnson is out for more than three weeks – Tommy Grady just isn’t suited for the spread offense....

2007 college coaching debuts – thumbs up to: Jeff Jagodzinski, Boston College, Troy Calhoun, Air Force, Nick Saban, Alabama, Dennis Erickson, Arizona State, Brian Kelly, Cincinnati, Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville, Randy Shannon, Miami-FL., Mark Dantonio, Michigan State, Todd Graham, Tulsa, Butch Davis, North Carolina; Thumbs down: David Bailiff, Rice, Neil Callaway, UAB, Tom O’Brien, N.C. State, Butch Jones, Central Michigan, Gene Chizik, Iowa State; Incomplete: Stan Brock, Army, Mario Cristobal, FIU, Robb Akey, Idaho, Derek Dooley, Louisiana Tech, Tim Brewster, Minnesota, Todd Dodge, North Texas, Jim Harbaugh, Stanford, Bob Toledo, Tulane...

BYU quarterback Max Hall was very impressive against Arizona, it looks like the Cougars will be in the mix for the Mountain West title once again...

Colorado quarterback Cody Hawkins looked very sharp in the Buffaloes victory against Colorado State...

Quote of week one, Hawaii receiver Davone Bess after the Warriors victory against Northern Colorado - "We knew this was the kind of game we couldn't go in cocky.”...

It is Syracuse, but Washington quarterback Jake Locker was impressive. He’s only going to get better and better, but the Huskies schedule is a bit intimidating....