Before the season started I talked with some college fantasy gurus to get their takes on the upcoming fantasy college football season. I’m posting the transcript now because, as it turns out, it can very busy around late August/early September when running the largest college fantasy site. (A shameless plug wrapped in a lame excuse – is that a first?)
The gurus I interviewed were:
- Mike Beacom of Pro Fantasy Sports
- Ryan Browder of College Fantasy Bowl
- Steven Lassan of Pro Fantasy Sports
- James Lyons of CFFInsider.com
- Vince Mullins of Fantasy College Blitz
What would you classify as the biggest difference between college and professional fantasy sports?
(Ryan) The turnover of players. In the pro football, the top fantasy performers are fairly consistent. The same names are at the top of the list every season. This is supported by the fact that the pre-season magazines will basically tell you the same news. In college, the absolute max a player will be a high performer is 4 years. If you get more than 2 years of production, you've struck gold. This creates a difficulty in evaluating talent at this level for fantasy sports. Experts will vary on who they feel are going to be the star performers in any given season. Personal preference becomes a large part of the game.
(James) There are many differences, but the one that stands out to me is the ability of players to have extreme blow-up weeks, sometimes half your scoring comes from one player. The big RBs and QBs can put up 6 TD games. You’ve got to have a couple of players capable of blowing up 2 or 3 weeks per year to compete in a college league.
(Steven) I think one of the biggest differences, if not the biggest is the large amount of players and the injury reports/information available each week. Usually the injury reports in college fantasy football are very vague, as opposed to pro where more is said and reported by the coach. Having 119 teams to choose from in a Division One league is a ton of players to sort through – compared to 32 teams with a smaller roster size. However, that's one of the advantages of college fantasy football – being able to find a great sleeper within the mass of players.
(Mike) College is for the more serious player. It takes a great amount of skill and a competitive owner really has to do his/her homework. But I can honestly say have more fun playing college fantasy football.
(Vince) The sheer number of teams are the biggest factor just ahead of a) the constantly changing rosters from year to year due to graduation, and c) the information advantage available to a good college owner. I can speak best about football - 66 teams in the Big Six conferences, and this year a total of 120 teams in all of FBS. Almost 2x and 4x the NFL makes the level of knowledge and commitment much higher for the college owner.
What player didn't pan out as you expected in '06?
(James) Sydney Rice at South Carolina. I thought he would be a consistent weekly scorer last season. By the time he had a breakout game, a lot of managers had benched him.
(Steve) I think there were a couple of guys who were major disappointments. Tyrell Sutton of Northwestern didn't live up to expectations; the same could be said for Kenny Irons of Auburn. Although both backs were solid, they certainly didn't equal up to the fantasy expectations we set for them. Arizona State quarterback Rudy Carpenter turned out to be a real bust, as well as Bret Meyer of Iowa State.
(Mike) Kyle Wright . . . wait, every U player, for that matter
(Vince) The names I remember were due to off-field issues. I think everyone missed on Rudy Carpenter QB Arizona State last year due to the HR turmoil. Tyrell Sutton RB Northwestern dealt with the death of his coach and a young inexperienced staff in his stead. Jarrett Hicks WR Texas Tech had academic issues that were not discussed openly until draft day for most leagues. That is why you have to look at more than talent, you have to define risk/opportunity as well.
(Ryan) Rudy Carpenter. Coming off a short season where he threw for 17 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, he was named starter and ready to put up great numbers. Injuries and the pressure of the Keller/Carpenter saga got to him and he had a very average fantasy season. That being said, Dennis Erickson takes over at Arizona State now and Carpenter is a good sleeper for 2007.
Who are some of the players you would draft in the mid-late rounds based on the potential of a huge year?
(Steve) I think there are several players who I would watch in the middle rounds – it's the spot that often makes or breaks your draft. One player who I really like is Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall had a good year as the backup running back, but with the starting spot all his, I think he's due for a breakout year. A guy like Miami, Ohio's Brandon Murphy is someone who will fall because of injuries, but is probably a 1000 yard back in 2007. Also, system quarterbacks are worth watching. Guys like Max Hall of BYU, Blake Joseph of Houston and the winner of the Baylor quarterback battle could have good fantasy value, particularly in select matchups. At receiver, I'd particularly watch any one of the Texas Tech guys that fall – you never know which one is going to emerge into a fantasy option.
(Mike) I think Curtis Painter will be much more efficient this year. He had great totals in ‘06 but threw too many picks. Expect that to change.
(Vince) We like to focus on QBs in the middle rounds, around the seventh to tenth time around. This year we like Justin Willis of SMU (who was ranked tenth in passing efficiency in 2006), Brian Johnson of Utah (back from knee injury) and Matt Flynn of LSU (starting experience with loads of supporting talent). At other positions are Dantrell Savage RB Oklahoma State, Austin Scott RB Penn State, Maurice Purify WR Nebraska and Andre Caldwell WR Florida.
(James) I think you have to look at freshman RB Noel Devine at WVU. He is potentially one injury away from seeing fulltime backfield duty. In a keeper league, I like this for the future. Probably more of a backup, but my personal pet project this year is senior RB Julius Crosslin at Oklahoma St. He could be this year’s touchdown vulture and post some 10 yard, 2 TD lines.
If you could be the college football commissioner for a day, what would you change about the regular season?
(Mike) I would change how schedules are prepared. Make it more systematic, like the NFL. No more cupcake non-conference schedules for BCS contenders.
(Steve) That's a tough one, I like most of the things in place. I would like to see more interesting non-conference matchups, so maybe have a scheduling plan in place like the NFL where the AFC North plays the NFC South one year, NFC East the next, etc. Perhaps have a college football ACC vs. the Big Ten…or the SEC vs. the Big 12. That would toughen the non-conference slate up and end the I-AA cupcake games.
(Vince) Not a thing. Maybe a gentle nudge to strengthen out-of-conference scheduling to repeat offenders, but overall the regular season for college football holds more special meaning than any other sport.
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