College Fantasy Info

College Football Mock Draft

This past Sunday a group of experts got together for a mock fantasy draft.  The draft was moderated by FantasyInsiderOnline and hosted by Mock Draft Central.

Draft Order:
1 – Dan Mesday of Fantasy Insider Online
2 – N/A
3 – Ryan Browder of College Fantasy Bowl
4 – Alex Esselink of CFFInsider
5 – Steve Lassan of Pro Fantasy Sports
6 – N/A
7 – Geoffrey Stein of Mock Draft Central
8 – Brian McDonald of RotoWorld
9 – Jonathan Lee of AccuScore
10 – Nathan Karp of U-Sports
11 – Jay Huffman of Virtual-Sports
12 – Vince Mullins of Fantasy College Blitz

I didn't get a great draft spot at #10, but was thrilled to see P.J. Hill still available.  I also reached on the defense on round 4, but I am prone to do that.  I feel VT, with their penchant for scoring on defense and special teams, is in a class by itself in terms of defensive squads.  If you don't get VT, the next 10 best choices are about the same.  I also hoped to start a run on defenses to keep more position players available for my next pick, but that trick didn't work with these guys.

We drafted 14 rounds from all of Division I-A (FBS).  Here are the results.

Decisions, Decisions

The good news? The 2007 college football season is just around the corner. The bad news? It's time for those tough decisions on draft day. Yep, those decisions. What do you do with Oregon State wide receiver Sammie Stroughter? How about Tulsa running back Courtney Tennial who could miss the 2007 season? Marcus Monk?

Is Monk worth a spot in the top 30 if he misses a couple of games? How do you rate Stroughter and Tennial, two players who seem to be a long-shot to even play in 2007? For those fantasy owners looking for a smart draft, you definitely don't want to gamble too much on guys like Stroughter and Tennial. However, if you have an injured player that should be back before the first month of the season is out, don't downgrade his ranking too much. You wouldn't want to draft him incredibly high, but there's still a good chance he will produce just as well where he is drafted when healthy - just assure yourself of a quality backup.

Considering the mostly vague injury reports you will often read, it is important to do your research just before draft day and always evaluate your rankings right up until the draft starts. Even the slightest tidbit of news on a position battle could mean the difference between getting the winner or the loser of the quarterback battle.

Obviously, you want to read as much information as you can before the draft gets going. Whether that's through fantasy websites, local newspapers or the school's website you should check out everything you can. Also, don't be afraid to move around your board when small bits of info come in.

Be sure to stick to your draft board - don't get caught up in the runs on tight ends, defenses, kickers, or whatever other position. Take the player or position you believe the value falls into. Of course, no one wants to get left out in the cold on the running backs or a solid starting quarterback, but stick to your board. Always pay attention to what the other league owners are doing, especially what positions they haven't addressed - you can develop a pretty good idea of what's coming up next.

The last important thing to note for a draft - enjoy it! You are building what you hope is a championship roster and it shouldn't be a two or three hour snooze fest.

Red Raider WRs Part II

Cut to Chase...Who will it be in 2007?                
While Jarrett Hicks owners will disagree, 2006 was an abnormally consistent for Tech wide receivers. With Hicks (X) out for various reasons throughout the year, Joel Filani (Z) and Robert Johnson (Y) were the beneficiaries, combining for 180 catches, 2171 yards, and 24 TDs. However, there is one key component to consider here: the Tech offense saw very little turnover at the WR position from 2005 to   2006. Filani, Johnson, Amendola (H), and Hicks (if he would have been eligible) were all carry-over starters from 2005. Filani and Johnson put up solid numbers in 2005, so it is no surprise that they flourished with Hicks out.                

The 2007 campaign is shaping up as an entirely different story. Besides Amendola, we are going to see a new group of WRs attempt to carve out a place in the starting line-up. Amendola moves from one inside spot (H), to the other inside spot (Y). At first glance this looks like lateral move. However looking back through recent years, the Y spot has out-produced the H ever since the Wes Welker era. In recent years we've seen Johnson, Trey Haverty (also played some H in relief of Nehemiah Glover), and Mickey Peters all put up legit fantasy numbers from the Y spot. This is good news for Amedola, who is a technically sound receiver that will pile up the receptions. However, don't look for him to be the big play threat of the group. If you're looking for consistency, and your league tallies points for receptions, Amendola is a very good pick.

Eric Morris is the most likely to take over the H spot made available with Amendola's move. Morris saw plenty of action at the H with Amendola last year, but as we've pointed out, the H spot has not produced the numbers as the Y. Given this and the fact that Morris was behind Amendola on the depth chart last year, he should also be behind Amendola on our draft board this year.                

When we start to look at the outside positions things start to get interesting and this is where the feast or famine potential is especially intriguing. There are 4 receivers vying for 2 spots. L.A. Reed and Todd Walker filled in for Hicks last year and manned the X position again this spring. Walker is the burner of the two with Reed possessing the size. Neither has distiguished themselves from the other so look         for them to split time once again, which will eat into individual numbers.                

Joel Filani manned the Z position for the past 2 years and his numbers speak for themselves. A pair of youngsters are battling to take over his spot and become the next big play receiver on the outside: sophomore Edward Britton and redshirt freshman Michael Crabtree. Crabtree was the scout team hero last year and tore up spring practice again this year. At 6' 2" and 210lbs he is a big target.  He also         has plenty of athletic ability to make things happen after the catch. A deadly combo.  Despite all the attention Crabtree has received of late, Britton is still ahead of him on the depth chart and should not be ignored. Britton is a bit smaller, but has tremendous speed. This makes him a threat anytime he touches the ball and in a Tech offense that could be often. Britton could also see some time in kick-off and punt returns giving him a few more touches this year.  Crabtree and Britton are Tech's two big play weapons and in the end we believe both will be on the field. Because of this we are placing our head smack dab on the chopping block once again, with the advice to take Crabtree and/or Britton ahead of Reed, Walker, or Morris.                

In short if you are looking for consistency you'll want to grab Amendola. If you're a gambler and are looking to score big you want Crabtree or Britton. If they don't pan out you can always blame us. If all three are gone, then you need to spin the roulette wheel with Reed, Walker, or Morris.                

This is an especially difficult year for drafting Red Raider wide receivers, and we're not just saying this so that angry owners do not throw this piece back in our faces in early November. The options are vast, the head coach is certifiable, and the Texas Tech offense looks to exploit the weaknesses of opposing defensive units rather than create individual stars. Some owners are going to get rich, and some are going to spend their free time making Mike Leach voodoo dolls; either way, it's never dull in Red Raider land.

   

Red Raider WRs part I

Delving into the mind of Mike Leach is no easy task. It's how we imagine Clarice Starling must've felt when getting to know the lovely Hannibal Lector (of course Mike Leach doesn't reside in a mental institution, nor does he strike us as one who likes a nice Chianti). So when CFFinsider.com decided to attempt to solve the Texas Tech wide receiver riddle, looking for the edge in 2007, we knew we were taking on a daunting task. One need only look at the alphabet soup (H, X, Y, F, HB, BH, etc) of positional call-outs to know that we are behind the eight of understanding right from the get go. But, being pathetic college football junkies we've accepted the challenge in order to help you win your league in 2007.

The Leach Alphabet                    

The Leach offense mixes and matches formations at will. So to use the word traditional when describing a Tech alignment is a bit of a laugh. However the most 'traditional" of line-ups you'll recognize is 4 wide with a back in the backfield. In this set, the H and Y spots are the inside receivers, the X and Z spots are the outside and or course the F is reserved for the running back...what else. The other mix of letters are simply there for Leach's amusement, in order to bewilder some 18 year old quarterback who was tricked into believing that playing for the Tech mad scientist would be fun. So for now keep these four letters the back of your mind as you read through this article: H, Y, X, and Z                

Feast or Famine                    

We've warned fantasy owners in the past about the feast or famine of Tech wide outs. One week a Tech WR will have 150+ yards and 3 scores and next he's barely a blip in box score. Frustrated owners ask (in best Nancy Kerrigan voice) "WHHHHHHHYYYYYYYY?" The simple answer is this is nature of the Mike Leach offense: spread them out and exploit a weakness. One this weakness may make the Z the big man on campus, the next week it will be H who's getting the receptions on a Saturday, and the pats on the back later that night. If you can stomach the lulls in-between the highs, then Tech receivers are a great buy. This is especially the case if you partake in a total points rather than head-to-head. But if, like your 401K, you need to set the lineup and ride it. Unless you have plans of starring in the sequel to Being John Malkovich, where you'll play John Cusack and Malkovich is replaced by Leach; you can forget about it. Tech wide receivers are not for the faint of heart or those with a tendency toward ulcers or high blood pressure. Like Tech running backs and quarterbacks, if you are not willing to ride them, don't draft them.

Draft at Your Own Risk - QB

Below is our second piece (the quarterback piece) of a three-part series on players that I feel will likely be taken too high on draft day.  As mentioned in my RB piece, it's important to note that this is not a list of players I expect to be busts; it's just a list of guys that may go too high on draft day.

Note: All fantasy football ratings listed below come from a pool of quarterbacks from the 6 BCS conferences only (including Notre Dame) and were taken from a handful of internet college fantasy football sites.

Chad Henne, Michigan - rated as high as 12th by one service.  Henne reminds me of Troy Aikman - a good QB with little fantasy value.  Even if Henne's passing numbers increase by 20% this year, he still won't be worth much.  His rushing yards will net out to less than zero and he may not rush for a TD all year.  And as good of an offense that Michigan has, they will pull the foot off the accelerator when they start to build leads.  He is not a top 25 QB in a BCS only league.

John David Booty, USC - rated as high as 3rd by one service.  Front-runner for the Heisman?  I can buy that.  A top fantasy QB?  I'm not buying this.  Like Henne, Booty is going to get you nothing on the ground. His numbers at year end I'm sure will look very impressive on paper, but not if your paper is listing fantasy stats.  Guys like Bobby Reid and Matt Grothe won't finish in the top 10 in Heisman voting, but they will have better fantasy stats than Mr. Booty.  Look for Booty to finish top 20, but not top 10 in QB fantasy stats (again, for a BCS league).

Andre Woodson, Kentucky - rated as high as 4th by one service.  Except for the Heisman talk, everything I said for Booty goes for Andre Woodson.  Woodson may actually crack the top 10 in QB fantasy stats, but the lack of rushing stats means Woodson has little shot at finishing top 5.

Brandon Cox, Auburn - rated as high as 23rd by one service.  After what seems like 20 years of starting experience (in college alone), Cox may be the man that can lead Auburn to a surprise SEC West title in '07, but he's not going to help your fantasy team.  He will get you no rushing stats.  (Is this theme ringing home yet?).  When drafting QB's you intend to be your backup, you are better off taking risks on higher upside QBs.  I would certainly take Taylor Potts over Brandon Cox.

Bret Meyer, Iowa State - rated as high as 19th by one service.  Iowa State's offense may be the very worst in terms of BCS conferences.  If Meyer had a line and played for a good team, he'd be a very valuable fantasy QB.  But he has an atrocious O-line and plays for a very bad football team.  Phil Steele is projecting the Cyclones to score 14.4 points per game this year.  Even if they surpass that number by 50%, Meyer is still not going to be much of a fantasy asset.

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame - rated as high as 21st by one service.  Why is this guy showing up on fantasy lists?  When was the last time a true-frosh QB put up big passing numbers?  And Rhema McNight and Jeff Samardzija are no longer around.  Clausen supposedly had a better command of the offense in the spring than the other QB's vying for the starting job, so I expect Clausen to win the job.  But I also expect him to taking a beating as a true frosh and to throw more INT's than TD's this year.

Draft at Your Own Risk - RB

Below is our first piece (the running back piece) of a three-part series on players that I feel will likely be taken too high on draft day.  Are they overrated?  That may be a bit harsh, but based on the different rankings I have found on different internet sites, these guys appear to have too many question marks to be taken as high as many project. It's important to note that this is not a list of players I expect to be busts.  Again, it's just a list of guys that may go too high on draft day.

Note:  All fantasy football ratings listed below come from a pool of running backs from the 6 BCS conferences only (including Notre Dame) and were taken from a handful of internet college fantasy football sites. 

Justin Forsett, California - Rated as high as 7th (again, among BCS running backs) by one service.  Forsett goes 5'8", 186 lbs.  Can he take the pounding of being an every down back?  I'm not so sure.  Jeff Tedford has always preferred to give his #2 tailback plenty of work and with Forsett's frame, it would make sense to spell him often this year.   He's talented, with some nice upside, but if you pick Forsett after only 10 RB's have gone, you're taking a bit of a risk, with more proven commodities (at RB) still on the board.

James Davis, Clemson - Rated as high as 4th by one service.  As mentioned in the RB ratings on this site, Davis rushed for 226 yards and 1 TD over his last 5 games in 2006.  His counter-part, CJ Spiller, had 415 rushing yards and 3 TD's over the same 5-game span.  Davis may continue to get the ball more than Spiller in 2007, but will he approach the 1,187 yards and 17 TD's he had on 2006?  Doubt it. 

Austin Scott, Penn State - Rated as high as 18th by one service.  Scott, now a 5th year senior, should be mature enough now to handle the starting role, and Penn State should be one of the most improved teams in the NCAA in 2007.  But I find it hard to believe Scott will come anywhere close to Tony Hunt's numbers last year (1,645 total yards and 14 total TD's), especially when Scott's 2005 numbers looked like this: 273 rushing yards, 3 TD's, 4.1 yards per carry, and 3 catches for 27 yards.

Allen Patrick, Oklahoma - Rated as high as 11th by one service.  Redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray likely would have made a splash last year, had he not been slowed by turf toe.  Murray is listed as 3rd team on the opening Sooner depth chart, but that may be a mirage.   Murray, who had 103 yards on 4 carries in the spring game, will push Patrick and may overtake at some point during the year.  The Sooners other TB, Chris Brown, has a knack for the end zone, and he too will eat into Patrick's fantasy points.

Chauncey Washington & Joe McKnight, USC - Washington is rated as high as 14th by one service.  10 (count 'em) scholarship TB's on USC's opening depth chart.  Chauncey Washington is probably the safest choice, but look for USC to use multiple backs all season long.  Joe McKnight has not even arrived on campus yet and has to battle several other high school All-Americans, yet he is appearing on some of the fantasy running back lists.  There are 5 TB's bracketed as the #1 TB on USC's opening depth chart (McKnight, having not practiced yet, not being one of them), and 4 of those 5 were rated as top 12 RB's in their respective high school classes (per Phil Steele's ratings).

Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma State - Rated as high as 24th by one service.  Former TB Mike Hamilton has transferred, but sophomore Keith Toston has made big strides since last season and should see many carries this year.  QB Bobby Reid will probably rush for (somewhere in the ballpark of) 600 yards on the season.  Phil Steele is projecting the Cowboys to amass 212 yards per game on the ground this year.  With Toston and Reid eating up a good percentage of those 212 yards, Savage may only amount to about a third of that total.  If you do the math using these numbers, Savage may not eclipse 900 yards this year.  He will likely be a top 30 RB selection on fantasy draft day, and that is probably too high. 

Javarris James, Miami - Rated as high as 15th by one service.  True freshman Graig Cooper arrived early and showed signs of stardom in the spring.  Cooper should see a good amount of carries early on and could overtake Javarris James at some point.   TB/FB Charlie Jones will see carries as well.  Phil Steele projects the Miami ground game to average 148 yards per game, which isn't anything to write home about.  With three TB's likely to see a decent amount of carries for the 'Canes this fall, I'm not sure how wise it is to send anything but a late round pick on James.

Keep Your Eye On System Quarterbacks

Does anybody have any clue what Hawaii, Texas Tech and New Mexico State have in common?

Hmm...maybe great fantasy system quarterbacks?

As you embark on your college fantasy journey, it's important to always keep in mind the offensive systems that each team will use. Hawaii, Texas Tech and NMSU are going to throw the ball a ton and it's a big reason why their quarterbacks should be top ones in the draft.

However, there is a second tier forming and should provide options this season - particularly Houston, BYU, Baylor and North Texas.

For Houston, Kevin Kolb is gone and the Cougars are starting over. Head coach Art Briles isn't going to let his graduation slow down his offense and while it may take some time for the new quarterback to get going - it's a gamble fantasy owners should be willing to take. Blake Joseph is currently the favorite to win the job, but Case Keenum and Al Pena will get a shot to contend for snaps in fall practice.

The same goes at BYU. John Beck may be taking snaps for the Dolphins, but new starter Max Hall has a lot of potential. The former Arizona State quarterback won the job in the spring and looked poised to lead the Cougars into Mountain West title contention once again.

North Texas might be the most intriguing, as successful high school coach Todd Dodge will pump some life into an offense that was incredibly dreadful last year. Dodge was known for his wide-open offense at the high school level and he intends to bring that into the mix this year. Dodge may not have the quarterback he wants yet, but you have to watch current starter Daniel Meager. Meager could be throwing 40 times a game and if he racks up 300 yards and three touchdowns each week - that's solid fantasy points.

At Baylor, former Kent State quarterback Michael Machen has an edge over John David Weed for the starting job and considering the spread offense they run, you have to slot him in your top 50 quarterback rankings. Additionally, the Bears aren't going to be very good this year and they could be playing from behind a lot - giving him plenty of times to throw and adding yardage to his total.

When the early fantasy rankings come out each year, unproven quarterbacks like Machen, Meager, Joseph and Hall should be taken seriously. Machen and Meager would probably rank in the 40-50s in a Division One QB Ranking, while Hall and Joseph should be in the top 25. Don't value them too high, but also realize these system quarterbacks could turn out to be real fantasy stars and help you win your league.