Below is our first piece (the running back piece) of a three-part series on players that I feel will likely be taken too high on draft day. Are they overrated? That may be a bit harsh, but based on the different rankings I have found on different internet sites, these guys appear to have too many question marks to be taken as high as many project. It's important to note that this is not a list of players I expect to be busts. Again, it's just a list of guys that may go too high on draft day.
Note: All fantasy football ratings listed below come from a pool of running backs from the 6 BCS conferences only (including Notre Dame) and were taken from a handful of internet college fantasy football sites.
Justin Forsett, California - Rated as high as 7th (again, among BCS running backs) by one service. Forsett goes 5'8", 186 lbs. Can he take the pounding of being an every down back? I'm not so sure. Jeff Tedford has always preferred to give his #2 tailback plenty of work and with Forsett's frame, it would make sense to spell him often this year. He's talented, with some nice upside, but if you pick Forsett after only 10 RB's have gone, you're taking a bit of a risk, with more proven commodities (at RB) still on the board.
James Davis, Clemson - Rated as high as 4th by one service. As mentioned in the RB ratings on this site, Davis rushed for 226 yards and 1 TD over his last 5 games in 2006. His counter-part, CJ Spiller, had 415 rushing yards and 3 TD's over the same 5-game span. Davis may continue to get the ball more than Spiller in 2007, but will he approach the 1,187 yards and 17 TD's he had on 2006? Doubt it.
Austin Scott, Penn State - Rated as high as 18th by one service. Scott, now a 5th year senior, should be mature enough now to handle the starting role, and Penn State should be one of the most improved teams in the NCAA in 2007. But I find it hard to believe Scott will come anywhere close to Tony Hunt's numbers last year (1,645 total yards and 14 total TD's), especially when Scott's 2005 numbers looked like this: 273 rushing yards, 3 TD's, 4.1 yards per carry, and 3 catches for 27 yards.
Allen Patrick, Oklahoma - Rated as high as 11th by one service. Redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray likely would have made a splash last year, had he not been slowed by turf toe. Murray is listed as 3rd team on the opening Sooner depth chart, but that may be a mirage. Murray, who had 103 yards on 4 carries in the spring game, will push Patrick and may overtake at some point during the year. The Sooners other TB, Chris Brown, has a knack for the end zone, and he too will eat into Patrick's fantasy points.
Chauncey Washington & Joe McKnight, USC - Washington is rated as high as 14th by one service. 10 (count 'em) scholarship TB's on USC's opening depth chart. Chauncey Washington is probably the safest choice, but look for USC to use multiple backs all season long. Joe McKnight has not even arrived on campus yet and has to battle several other high school All-Americans, yet he is appearing on some of the fantasy running back lists. There are 5 TB's bracketed as the #1 TB on USC's opening depth chart (McKnight, having not practiced yet, not being one of them), and 4 of those 5 were rated as top 12 RB's in their respective high school classes (per Phil Steele's ratings).
Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma State - Rated as high as 24th by one service. Former TB Mike Hamilton has transferred, but sophomore Keith Toston has made big strides since last season and should see many carries this year. QB Bobby Reid will probably rush for (somewhere in the ballpark of) 600 yards on the season. Phil Steele is projecting the Cowboys to amass 212 yards per game on the ground this year. With Toston and Reid eating up a good percentage of those 212 yards, Savage may only amount to about a third of that total. If you do the math using these numbers, Savage may not eclipse 900 yards this year. He will likely be a top 30 RB selection on fantasy draft day, and that is probably too high.
Javarris James, Miami - Rated as high as 15th by one service. True freshman Graig Cooper arrived early and showed signs of stardom in the spring. Cooper should see a good amount of carries early on and could overtake Javarris James at some point. TB/FB Charlie Jones will see carries as well. Phil Steele projects the Miami ground game to average 148 yards per game, which isn't anything to write home about. With three TB's likely to see a decent amount of carries for the 'Canes this fall, I'm not sure how wise it is to send anything but a late round pick on James.
Note: All fantasy football ratings listed below come from a pool of running backs from the 6 BCS conferences only (including Notre Dame) and were taken from a handful of internet college fantasy football sites.
Justin Forsett, California - Rated as high as 7th (again, among BCS running backs) by one service. Forsett goes 5'8", 186 lbs. Can he take the pounding of being an every down back? I'm not so sure. Jeff Tedford has always preferred to give his #2 tailback plenty of work and with Forsett's frame, it would make sense to spell him often this year. He's talented, with some nice upside, but if you pick Forsett after only 10 RB's have gone, you're taking a bit of a risk, with more proven commodities (at RB) still on the board.
James Davis, Clemson - Rated as high as 4th by one service. As mentioned in the RB ratings on this site, Davis rushed for 226 yards and 1 TD over his last 5 games in 2006. His counter-part, CJ Spiller, had 415 rushing yards and 3 TD's over the same 5-game span. Davis may continue to get the ball more than Spiller in 2007, but will he approach the 1,187 yards and 17 TD's he had on 2006? Doubt it.
Austin Scott, Penn State - Rated as high as 18th by one service. Scott, now a 5th year senior, should be mature enough now to handle the starting role, and Penn State should be one of the most improved teams in the NCAA in 2007. But I find it hard to believe Scott will come anywhere close to Tony Hunt's numbers last year (1,645 total yards and 14 total TD's), especially when Scott's 2005 numbers looked like this: 273 rushing yards, 3 TD's, 4.1 yards per carry, and 3 catches for 27 yards.
Allen Patrick, Oklahoma - Rated as high as 11th by one service. Redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray likely would have made a splash last year, had he not been slowed by turf toe. Murray is listed as 3rd team on the opening Sooner depth chart, but that may be a mirage. Murray, who had 103 yards on 4 carries in the spring game, will push Patrick and may overtake at some point during the year. The Sooners other TB, Chris Brown, has a knack for the end zone, and he too will eat into Patrick's fantasy points.
Chauncey Washington & Joe McKnight, USC - Washington is rated as high as 14th by one service. 10 (count 'em) scholarship TB's on USC's opening depth chart. Chauncey Washington is probably the safest choice, but look for USC to use multiple backs all season long. Joe McKnight has not even arrived on campus yet and has to battle several other high school All-Americans, yet he is appearing on some of the fantasy running back lists. There are 5 TB's bracketed as the #1 TB on USC's opening depth chart (McKnight, having not practiced yet, not being one of them), and 4 of those 5 were rated as top 12 RB's in their respective high school classes (per Phil Steele's ratings).
Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma State - Rated as high as 24th by one service. Former TB Mike Hamilton has transferred, but sophomore Keith Toston has made big strides since last season and should see many carries this year. QB Bobby Reid will probably rush for (somewhere in the ballpark of) 600 yards on the season. Phil Steele is projecting the Cowboys to amass 212 yards per game on the ground this year. With Toston and Reid eating up a good percentage of those 212 yards, Savage may only amount to about a third of that total. If you do the math using these numbers, Savage may not eclipse 900 yards this year. He will likely be a top 30 RB selection on fantasy draft day, and that is probably too high.
Javarris James, Miami - Rated as high as 15th by one service. True freshman Graig Cooper arrived early and showed signs of stardom in the spring. Cooper should see a good amount of carries early on and could overtake Javarris James at some point. TB/FB Charlie Jones will see carries as well. Phil Steele projects the Miami ground game to average 148 yards per game, which isn't anything to write home about. With three TB's likely to see a decent amount of carries for the 'Canes this fall, I'm not sure how wise it is to send anything but a late round pick on James.
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