Below is our second piece (the quarterback piece) of a
three-part series on players that I feel will likely be
taken too high on draft day. As mentioned in my RB
piece, it's important to note that this is not a list
of players I expect to be busts; it's just a list of
guys that may go too high on draft day.
Note: All fantasy football ratings listed below come from a pool of quarterbacks from the 6 BCS conferences only (including Notre Dame) and were taken from a handful of internet college fantasy football sites.
Chad Henne, Michigan - rated as high as 12th by one service. Henne reminds me of Troy Aikman - a good QB with little fantasy value. Even if Henne's passing numbers increase by 20% this year, he still won't be worth much. His rushing yards will net out to less than zero and he may not rush for a TD all year. And as good of an offense that Michigan has, they will pull the foot off the accelerator when they start to build leads. He is not a top 25 QB in a BCS only league.
John David Booty, USC - rated as high as 3rd by one service. Front-runner for the Heisman? I can buy that. A top fantasy QB? I'm not buying this. Like Henne, Booty is going to get you nothing on the ground. His numbers at year end I'm sure will look very impressive on paper, but not if your paper is listing fantasy stats. Guys like Bobby Reid and Matt Grothe won't finish in the top 10 in Heisman voting, but they will have better fantasy stats than Mr. Booty. Look for Booty to finish top 20, but not top 10 in QB fantasy stats (again, for a BCS league).
Andre Woodson, Kentucky - rated as high as 4th by one service. Except for the Heisman talk, everything I said for Booty goes for Andre Woodson. Woodson may actually crack the top 10 in QB fantasy stats, but the lack of rushing stats means Woodson has little shot at finishing top 5.
Brandon Cox, Auburn - rated as high as 23rd by one service. After what seems like 20 years of starting experience (in college alone), Cox may be the man that can lead Auburn to a surprise SEC West title in '07, but he's not going to help your fantasy team. He will get you no rushing stats. (Is this theme ringing home yet?). When drafting QB's you intend to be your backup, you are better off taking risks on higher upside QBs. I would certainly take Taylor Potts over Brandon Cox.
Bret Meyer, Iowa State - rated as high as 19th by one service. Iowa State's offense may be the very worst in terms of BCS conferences. If Meyer had a line and played for a good team, he'd be a very valuable fantasy QB. But he has an atrocious O-line and plays for a very bad football team. Phil Steele is projecting the Cyclones to score 14.4 points per game this year. Even if they surpass that number by 50%, Meyer is still not going to be much of a fantasy asset.
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame - rated as high as 21st by one service. Why is this guy showing up on fantasy lists? When was the last time a true-frosh QB put up big passing numbers? And Rhema McNight and Jeff Samardzija are no longer around. Clausen supposedly had a better command of the offense in the spring than the other QB's vying for the starting job, so I expect Clausen to win the job. But I also expect him to taking a beating as a true frosh and to throw more INT's than TD's this year.
Note: All fantasy football ratings listed below come from a pool of quarterbacks from the 6 BCS conferences only (including Notre Dame) and were taken from a handful of internet college fantasy football sites.
Chad Henne, Michigan - rated as high as 12th by one service. Henne reminds me of Troy Aikman - a good QB with little fantasy value. Even if Henne's passing numbers increase by 20% this year, he still won't be worth much. His rushing yards will net out to less than zero and he may not rush for a TD all year. And as good of an offense that Michigan has, they will pull the foot off the accelerator when they start to build leads. He is not a top 25 QB in a BCS only league.
John David Booty, USC - rated as high as 3rd by one service. Front-runner for the Heisman? I can buy that. A top fantasy QB? I'm not buying this. Like Henne, Booty is going to get you nothing on the ground. His numbers at year end I'm sure will look very impressive on paper, but not if your paper is listing fantasy stats. Guys like Bobby Reid and Matt Grothe won't finish in the top 10 in Heisman voting, but they will have better fantasy stats than Mr. Booty. Look for Booty to finish top 20, but not top 10 in QB fantasy stats (again, for a BCS league).
Andre Woodson, Kentucky - rated as high as 4th by one service. Except for the Heisman talk, everything I said for Booty goes for Andre Woodson. Woodson may actually crack the top 10 in QB fantasy stats, but the lack of rushing stats means Woodson has little shot at finishing top 5.
Brandon Cox, Auburn - rated as high as 23rd by one service. After what seems like 20 years of starting experience (in college alone), Cox may be the man that can lead Auburn to a surprise SEC West title in '07, but he's not going to help your fantasy team. He will get you no rushing stats. (Is this theme ringing home yet?). When drafting QB's you intend to be your backup, you are better off taking risks on higher upside QBs. I would certainly take Taylor Potts over Brandon Cox.
Bret Meyer, Iowa State - rated as high as 19th by one service. Iowa State's offense may be the very worst in terms of BCS conferences. If Meyer had a line and played for a good team, he'd be a very valuable fantasy QB. But he has an atrocious O-line and plays for a very bad football team. Phil Steele is projecting the Cyclones to score 14.4 points per game this year. Even if they surpass that number by 50%, Meyer is still not going to be much of a fantasy asset.
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame - rated as high as 21st by one service. Why is this guy showing up on fantasy lists? When was the last time a true-frosh QB put up big passing numbers? And Rhema McNight and Jeff Samardzija are no longer around. Clausen supposedly had a better command of the offense in the spring than the other QB's vying for the starting job, so I expect Clausen to win the job. But I also expect him to taking a beating as a true frosh and to throw more INT's than TD's this year.
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